Doom and Gloom: Research Firm Says 65% Chance of Banking Crisis by Thanksgiving
Think Tank Exclusive Analysis just released a grim set of predictions in which they believe there is a 65% chance of a banking crisis between November 23-26 that involves a Greek default and Euro exit, as well as a run on the Italian banking system. At this point, they only attribute 25% likelihood to Europe “muddling though” and 10% to actually resolving the crisis.
The predictions come from a scenario modeling exercise in which they tested various assumptions on the future of the European debt crisis.
The Worst, and Most Likely, Case
Under their most likely outcome (via CNBC ), the governments of Greece and Portugal will both soon collapse because of inability to handle the debt crisis. Germany will become opposed to handing out more funds to the EFSF and parliament will actually reduce the money available to the fund.




